2023-11-03 • Updated
The Federal Reserve decided unanimously to maintain interest rates at 5.25-5.50%, a highly anticipated move that retains significant implications for monetary policy's future course. Despite this decision, the FOMC refrained from definitively ruling out potential future rate hikes, leaving room for policy adjustments. During his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell expressed deep concerns about ongoing inflation, implying that the current policy might not be restrictive enough. Rising bond yields also captured the Fed's attention, contributing to tightening financial conditions.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BOE) took a similar stance by holding existing interest rates, following a series of consecutive rate hikes from December 2021 to August 2022. The UK grapples with high inflation, which surged to 6.7% in September, significantly exceeding the BOE's 2% target, similar to the US and Europe. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remains uncomfortably high at 6.1% for the UK. The country maintains a 15-year high interest rate of 5.25%, and it remains to be seen how this would impact the NFP release.
USDCAD began a steady decline a short while ago, and the drop is currently approaching a demand zone. When price reaches the demand zone, I expect to see a bullish rally because the demand zone overlaps with other confluences like; the 200-period moving average, trendline support, and the bullish array of the moving averages indicating a bullish trend is at play.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 1.38349
Invalidation: 1.35614
At this time, we can see the price action on the 4-Hour timeframe of the EURUSD chart returning to the previous high where we have a supply zone. My expectation is that the bullish move will be rejected from the supply zone, back to the 50-period moving average.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.06024
Invalidation: 1.06968
GBPUSD’s 4-Hour timeframe chart provides a much cleaner price action compared to the EURUSD chart of the same period. Here on GBPUSD we see the supply zone clearly at the 76% of the Fibonacci retracement as the price action slowly approaches it. The bearish moving average array is also quite clear.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.21124
Invalidation: 1.22916
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. To succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.
During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Monday, despite a slight dip in the US Dollar (USD) and higher US Treasury yields. Investors are eyeing Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023. The AUD gains momentum as the ASX 200 Index rises, especially in mining and energy sectors. Additionally, the Aussie...
Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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